By 2030, Russia will not have the power to pose a threat to Finland. There are not enough troops that could be concentrated on the border.
Politico writes about this.
According to the report, Putin recently threatened to deploy troops near the border with Finland. This causes serious outrage, especially given that the length of this border exceeds 1300 kilometers. However, Finland now has the support of its NATO allies, meaning that Putin’s threat is unlikely to raise serious concerns from an existential security perspective.
However, this attempt at fearmongering will prove to be futile, and not only for this reason. There is another important reason for Russia’s military shortage, according to Politico.
Putin complained that Russia used to have perfect relations with Finland. He believes that the withdrawal of troops from under the Russian-Finnish border was a gesture of goodwill. Despite this, Finland joined NATO and Putin is now threatening to return the troops.
The media notes that Putin’s complaint in many ways resembles the complaints of a bully who claims that everything is fine until the police intervene. However, the problem with constantly threatening others is that it requires significant resources. If Russia wants to strike fear in Finland by threatening to deploy troops on the border because of the country’s accession to NATO, it must have sufficient military forces. But Russia is simply not capable of doing so.